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Lionsgate’s « The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping » is tracking well above where analysts put it two weeks ago. A long-range forecast reported on Oct. 29 pointed to an opening weekend of $55 million to $65 million in the United States and Canada. By this week, Deadline was reporting that presales were running ahead of « Wicked » and that an opening of about $80 million was in view.
The film opens nationwide on Friday, Nov. 20, with early-access screenings in premium formats on Wednesday, Nov. 18.
Forecasts moved up by roughly $15 million to $25 million in two weeks
Boxoffice Pro’s long-range forecast, as relayed by the fan site Comic Basics on Oct. 29, put the debut at $55 million to $65 million. At that level the film would be the second-lowest opening in the franchise. Deadline’s more recent headline raised the target to $80 million, citing presales that beat « Wicked. »
One independent tracker went further and floated a $100 million-plus start, though that was presented as an upside scenario rather than a forecast. Tickets for every showtime went on sale on Wednesday, Oct. 28.
The bar is a $44.6 million opening for « Songbirds & Snakes »
The comparison that matters is the last film. « The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes » opened to $44.6 million in 2023, the lowest debut in the series, and finished with about $348 million worldwide on a $100 million budget.
The four original films opened far higher: about $152.5 million for « The Hunger Games » in 2012, $158.1 million for « Catching Fire, » $121.9 million for « Mockingjay – Part 1 » and $102.7 million for « Mockingjay – Part 2. » An $80 million start would sit between the prequel and the original run.
A $185 million budget raises the stakes
Reports put the production budget at $170 million to $200 million, with The Numbers tracking it at $185 million. That is well above the $100 million spent on the last film, so the studio needs a stronger run than « Songbirds » delivered.
The film runs 158 minutes, the longest in the franchise, and is rated PG-13. The cast is led by Joseph Zada as a young Haymitch and includes Ralph Fiennes, Elle Fanning, Jesse Plemons, Kieran Culkin, Maya Hawke and Glenn Close. Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson are listed in returning roles as Katniss and Peeta.
The novel gives the film a head start
The Suzanne Collins novel the film is based on sold more than 1.5 million copies worldwide in its first week, the biggest launch in the series. U.S. sales of the book have run at more than double the pace of « Songbirds, » according to figures cited by Comic Basics.
Early audience reactions have been described as glowing, with some viewers calling it the best film in the franchise. Presale data alone can overstate final results, since franchise fans tend to buy early, so the first Friday and Saturday numbers will say more than any forecast.
What to watch before opening day
Forecasts typically firm up in the final week. Studios and trackers usually update projections around the Monday and Tuesday before release, once presale pace is clear. Check theater listings for the Nov. 18 early-access shows in IMAX, Dolby Cinema, 4DX and ScreenX, which are already on sale at major chains including Regal and Cinemark.
